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do not worry!No new round of the Asian financial crisis

Historical pictures: the Asian financial crisis, Hong Kong investors night network, network nightlife Wall Street News Ticker 19 news, China suddenly sharp depreciation of the yuan, crude oil and other commodity prices have fallen enormous pressure on emerging markets in Asia, Indonesia and Malaysia currencies the collapse of devaluation, since 1998 fell to the lowest level of the Asian financial crisis, but research institutions Kay cast macro (economic capital) does not think there will be a new round of the Asian financial crisis。  Kay cast macro-economist David Rees believes the situation will not deteriorate further: "If the Indonesian rupiah and the Malaysian ringgit continued to depreciate, the worst consequences of the two countries is forced to raise interest rates, rather than evolved into a full-blown financial crisis。"Of course, the sharp depreciation of the currency, and not just in Malaysia and Indonesia, this year many Asian currencies have depreciated against the dollar as high as 10%, but Malaysia and Indonesia are the only two real exchange rate to return to the Asian financial crisis lows country。  Reese did not agree to provoke the Chinese "currency war" that the RMB will not depreciate further。Moreover, before the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis in mid-Asian economic growth is overheated, but it is clearly not the case。US dollar against the Malaysian Ringgit trend Rees wrote in the report: "Indeed, domestic demand for over-exuberant concern is one reason Indonesian rupiah devaluation beginning in 2011, but since then has been in the rupiah depreciation trend, the greater the logic behind Indonesia is the lack of competitiveness。Although the Malaysian ringgit is more powerful than the depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah, but a collapse in prices is the dominant factor。"Kay cast macro that because asset prices have been at very depressed levels, similar to the mid-1998 Asian impossible to massive capital flight occurred, and further devaluation could prompt some countries to attract capital inflows by raising interest rates, rather than more extreme measures such as resorting to capital controls。  According to Kay Kay cast macro-prepared investment macro risk indicators (economic capital risk indicators), the probability of the current Asian crisis is far below the level before the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis in mid。(Tony compilation)