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Russia's weekend elections will be held and small friction UBS optimistic about its near-term economic outlook

According to the US Securities News Tencent financial website CNBC reported that Russia is ready on Sunday on the occasion of the presidential election, the country's economy is still the most important factor to consider voters。 However, despite Western sanctions due to the low economic growth and a fall in the oil price volatility has brought long-term economic burden, but UBS and JP Morgan are on the near-term outlook confidence in Russia。
According to UBS data, Russia has recovered from two years of recession over, the% economic growth last year, mainly due to domestic demand and investment have improved。 The bank expects its gross domestic product (GDP) will continue to grow over the next two years。 Polls show that incumbent President Vladimir – Putin (VladimirPutin) is expected to win in a predictable campaign。 In this campaign, Putin's approval ratings as high as nearly 80%。 However, despite Putin's stay it would not be surprising, but a new, reformist cabinet is likely to be decided will be the core of the future of the country's structural reforms。 Positive growth prospects, "We are optimistic about the growth prospects of the Russian economy, as we expected, with the rise of real wages, consumer spending will remain strong。 "JP Morgan Asset Management emerging market debt portfolio manager Diana – A Moya (DianaAmoa) represents。
She added that "the election results may make the Cabinet more inclined to finance spending, which would be an additional driver of economic growth, but overall, we expect the country's macroeconomic policy will remain unchanged。 "The outlook is optimistic rubles。 JP Morgan is expected, with stable oil prices to attract new investment portfolio into the country, the ruble will remain relatively stable and have a tendency to appreciate slightly。
However, the risk of ruble ultimately is not determined by macroeconomic but by geopolitical decisions, while UBS admit it harder to predict。 Falling living standards due to the low energy prices, an aging population, low productivity and Western sanctions continued, the country's economic growth potential is still very low, so is still facing serious challenges。
Although many Russians still love Putin, but polls show that people on Russia's economic performance is not so enthusiastic。 VeriskMaplecroft consulting firm's chief analyst at Russia Della – McDowell (DaraghMcDowell) said that while Moscow saw some focus on economic growth, but in the past three years, real wages regions outside Moscow has been declining。 He said in an interview on CNBC: "It is widely believed that people in these areas more and more disgusted with the deterioration of living standards。 "He described the growth prospects for the next three years in Russia 'at best mediocre'。
Although inflation has been stable, and the agricultural sector seems to be recovering, but as is the case after a key obstacle to economic growth in Russia and the Soviet Union collapsed: property unstable, weak rule of law and for corruption。 But McDowell said, do not expect the country in the short term will be reformed: "As Putin's system of government depends on all these factors to maintain and exercise power, reform is still unlikely to。
"Putin's commitment to halving poverty in a campaign speech in early March, to focus on domestic issues, promised the next six years will reduce the country's poverty rate by half, and will become Russia's top five economies in the world。 Putin said: "This is a complex task, but I believe we are ready。 "According to a report consulting firm macro AdvisoryPartners, which is what the Kremlin in the next few years the problem to be solved, otherwise it could destabilize the socio-economic balance。 Putin also suggested that the political liberal, but observers are skeptical。
On external variables in terms of commodity prices and Western sanctions against Russia's economy is still the most important influence, even though Russia is now dependent on oil revenues has been below the level of mid-2015 when oil prices plunge。
As Russia has been accused of using so-called nerve gas attack on a former spy on British soil, possible new sanctions coming。
This incident further undermined the country's relations with the West, it is now considered to be the most tense since the Cold War period。
From the point of view of long-term economic outlook, JPMorgan E Moya said: "We have not seen the potential of reform to promote growth in a meaningful, so the current situation is still a state of potential fiscal stimulus and produce cycle economic rebound。
"(Wolf)。